Theory of change intro

Strategy

Mar 24

Written By Climate 2025

If you have a vision for change, it's likely you're a hive of ideas and activities, excited about the journey you are on. At this stage, it can be useful to create a detailed model for the change you want to see. To get a basic definition and example, you might watch this video.

Theory of Change is a concept for understanding the impact your activities have on your goal. By breaking down the journey into different components, it is possible to interrogate your approach and maximise the impact you make. This simple model can also help organise your activity in new ways, so that hidden connections, pitfalls and opportunities can be unearthed. When in complete, you can use your Theory of Change to:

Interrogate whether your activities are really having the desired impact
Plan the sequence and resourcing of your activities
Communicate your vision and strategy externally
Start speaking the language of funders

It might sound like a complex concept, but it's likely you already have lots of the information to go into your Theory of Change; this is just a new way of bringing your vision to life.

Understanding Theory of change components

Creating a Theory of Change centres on understanding and articulating different components of your work; from the external context to the internal activities you undertake. A brief description of each is listed here, and further detail is provided in the "Creating your TOC", and conversation prompts are in the jamboard, documents below.

Goal

The goal is your “big vision” - the ultimate state or condition you want to see achieved.

Challenges

What is the context for your work? What issues and problems are standing in the way of the goal being achieved? These could be systemic, industrial, behavioural, etc. It's good to evidence these where possible.

Long term impact

The changes that need to happen in order for the goal to be achieved

Short term outcomes

Milestones that will lead to the impacts being achieved

Activities/outputs

The day to day tasks that your organisation undertake to achieve the milestones

Measurement

Ways that you will monitor progress of activities in relation to your goal; sometimes called Key Performance Indicators.

Put this into practice

NOTE: Please make copies of all the master documents linked to in this document

There are a few steps to creating your Theory of change.

Assign roles and responsibilities for the process; who will lead the Theory of Change work. This role may sit well with someone who is a good facilitator or someone who has good strategy skills.
Brainstorm the different components of your Theory of Change. There is a guide to different components here, and a jamboard to facilitate and record discussion here.

These can be quite comprehensive discussions, so make sure you set aside enough time for good exchanges. Consider who you would like to have as part of these discussions; NCVO recommends considering staff, volunteers, stakeholders and trustees among others.

Create your Theory of Change! There are lots of different models that you can use. Some organisations prefer to have a narrative Theory of Change, by writing each section in paragraphs and connecting them together. Alternatively, there is a template for a tabular Theory of Change, which sticks to the terms used in this resource, here. Take a look at different examples, though; there is a chance to get visually creative!
Use your Theory of Change - the most important step! Plan how you will keep this as a living document in the organisation. Decide what stakeholder you want to show it to (funders, trustees, new staff and volunteers might be a few ideas). Also think about how frequently you will revisit and update this. Ideally you want to keep a record of your progress against measurements, and tweak elements where necessary.

You can also follow our more detailed Creating your Theory of Change guide.

Further resources

There is definitely more than one way to write a Theory of Change! This resource is designed with emerging movements in mind. Some links you might find useful are: